May 01, 2025 by Cara Pattison, SME MI-WPC Program Manager with Reporting by Cullen Smith, SME MI-WPC Researcher This month, SME MI-WPC released new regional data insights that offer a clearer view of both the progress and gaps within manufacturing communities across our MI-WPC ecosystem -- highlighting key trends and implications at the national level. The findings, shared by Cullen Smith at the March 2025 SME MI-WPC Champions Advisory Council meeting, dig into workforce and occupational trends across MI-WPC's rural, suburban, and urban college partners. The results? A mix of eye-opening realities and strategic opportunities we can’t afford to ignore. The Big Picture: Past Growth, Future Uncertainty Between 2020 and 2024, manufacturing jobs across the MI-WPC network -- in this case, defined as ZIP codes within 60-mile radii of the MI-WPC ecosystem’s campuses -- grew by an impressive 12% across their geographic classifications. But that momentum is projected to fade fast. From 2026 to 2030, growth is expected to shrink to just 1.7% -- adding roughly 69,000 jobs, compared to more than 530,000 over the last half decade. That’s not just a slowdown -- it’s a call to action. Education Matters -- Significantly The data show a direct, statistically significant (p=0.0003) link between education and job growth. Workers with a bachelor’s degree or postsecondary credential are seeing the most growth in job opportunities (up to 3%) in the next half decade. Those with only a high school diploma -- or no credential at all -- are projected to fall behind, even seeing declines in job prospects. For colleges and employers, the takeaway is clear: targeted upskilling isn’t optional. It’s essential. What’s Different by Region? Each community type has its own unique demand profile that plays into realized and projected growth in the 2020-2024 and 2026-2030 time periods: Rural Colleges: Occupations: These regions are seeing strong demand for CNC programmers, avionics technicians, and HVAC roles -- but also notable declines in mechanical drafters and engineering techs. Growth over the decade: Rural ecosystems saw a solid 12% job growth from 2020–2024 and are projected to continue growing at 3% through 2030, showing the most steady momentum of the three regions. Suburban Colleges Occupations: These regions show growth in industrial engineering techs and aircraft mechanics, while tool and die maker roles are shrinking. Growth over the decade: Suburban ecosystems grew by 10% from 2020–2024 but face near-stagnant growth ahead, with only 0.12% projected between 2026–2030, signaling potential market saturation or structural challenges. Urban Colleges Occupations: Urban colleges within our MI-WPC ecosystem are projecting major growth in HVAC and aircraft maintenance -- but like other regions, are experiencing drops in mechanical drafting and some electronics repair jobs. Growth over the decade: Urban ecosystems led with 14% growth from 2020–2024 and, while expected to slow to 2% growth by 2030, remain a key driver of manufacturing job expansion. Despite these differences, one shared reality is constant: middle-skill roles that align with associate degrees and post-secondary credentials are at the core of future workforce needs. But colleges are still battling systemic challenges: faculty shortages, funding gaps, and outdated public perceptions about manufacturing. Where Do We Go from Here? This research supports the MI-WPC’s broader mission to equip colleges and manufacturers with regionally grounded data to inform smarter, more agile programming. It reinforces the need for: Strategic investment in workforce training beyond the high school level. Training that is grounded in a rich understanding of regional strengths and opportunities. Stronger alignment between college programs and actual occupational demand—including the skills and curricula needed to produce adaptable, job-ready graduates. Expanded partnerships among colleges, manufacturers, and community organizations to ensure aligned training, stronger pipelines, and shared workforce solutions. Scalable, replicable research models that can adapt to a broader set of rural, suburban, and urban settings with robust occupational, industrial, and geographical insights. As Cullen put it in the report, “These are conservative projections -- but that’s what makes them so valuable. They show us where to act now, before the window of opportunity narrows.”
